| Which national economies will benefit most in a world of extended supply chains
and open trade? Today, the obvious response seems to be the Asian nations. They'll
certainly be the fastest growing air freight markets.
Asia has become the world's factory floor - a low-cost, highly-productive region
to outsource the manufacture of goods and services. Those goods and services
fill up aircraft cargo holds of ever-larger aircraft headed for the Western
hemisphere.
But Asia could become even more connected to the U.S. and Europe as it evolves
from producer to dynamic consumer market to an emerging source of ideas about
products.
The possibilities of this yet unraveling Asia outsourcing story surfaced at
a recent UPS sponsored global conference in Paris - the second in the company's
series of Longitudes gatherings in different regions around the world.
Speaking on the impact of Asia on European commerce, Arnoud De Meyer, professor
of technology management at INSEAD, challenged participants to think of Asia
in a new light.
"Of course, Asian nations have become great places to source goods and
services," De Meyer said. "But think of them also as presenting Europe
and the U.S. with market opportunities, and with ideas."
De Meyer believes we're really just at the beginnings of an interconnected
global economy that's characterized by increasing cross-border cargo and package
trade and networking technologies like the Internet. That economy's infancy
has been greatly influenced by an entirely new way of looking at supply chains.
Producers, such as manufacturers and retailers, now use sophisticated supply
chain resources to extend their production-to-customer linkages around the world
- an approach that drives top and bottom line growth.
Thus far, a shining star of the supply chain revolution has been manufacturing
sourcing opportunities in Asia. In China alone, more than a billion dollars
in foreign direct investment arrives each week.
That business explosion has catapulted China to become the world's sixth largest
economy. It's expected to be the second most active trading nation by the end
of the decade.
Of course, outsourcing of production to China has also siphoned manufacturing
and services jobs from the West. On the other hand, the "China price"
of imports has held down inflation and put money in American and European consumers'
pockets. And then there's the impending market opportunity presented to Western
nations - a gold field waiting to be mined.
According to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, between 250 and 300 million
Chinese people can now be classified as middle class. This number is expected
to more than double by the year 2020. Right now, China's domestic market is
the world's fourth largest for consumer electronics. It's snapping up Western
staples like TVs, DVD players and cell phones. Each month, five million new
subscribers in China sign up for mobile phone service. New China housing construction
is also exploding, growing by 33 percent a year. The home improvement market
in China is estimated at $50 billion annually.
For developed Western economies, the emergence of China and other Asian national
economies has been a paradox - an immediate source of anxiety on the one hand,
yet a growing export opportunity on the other. Although the U.S. has an escalating
trade deficit with China, its overall ratio of exports to imports is about even.
Europe and particularly Japan have become major exporters into China.
That said, it's significant to note that weekly air cargo trade service between
the U.S. and China will triple this spring compared to a year ago.
That presents even more lanes and more convenience for U.S. companies to re-examine
Asia export opportunities. Certainly, Asia has caused forward-thinking companies
to re-examine and re-define supply-chain networks.
In addition to his optimistic views on exporting to Asia, De Meyer also offered
this thought for Western business leaders regarding their home markets: "Great
ideas will spring from research and development in Asia and from Asian customers.
Those ideas may well have an impact on what we do in Europe and the U.S. And
the first people who can sense those ideas, bring them back, and roll them out
in the U.S. and Europe will be the ones who will be successful."
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